Sunday, February 28, 2010

Caveat Lectores on Economic Recovery: Smoke and Mirrors

The economic indicators seem to be saying that things are or could be getting better soon, but there are some big qualifiers to that theory. As an amateur economist with some years of academic economics study and many years of suffering at the whims of a wildly fluctuating Florida economy, I can comfortably make this claim: Neither I nor anyone else, with any credible credentials and nothing to gain from predicting further calamity or jubilant economic overheating as before, really have a clue as to where we are going in the short to mid-range term. If we live long enough, things will turn around. All of this nonsense is cyclical, but it could get worse.

That being said, I did some cursory research into real statistical indicators and now proclaim I have a headache from all the conflicting information.

The D’s and President Obama need a swift recovery to keep from suffering a midterm election debacle.

The R’s, Tea Baggers, Beck, O’Reilly and the entire Fox News Network need for the economy to slide further into the crapper or they may have to eat some crow and admit that the world has not been delivered to the Devil in a hand basket by the D’s and Obama. Never mind that the recession predated the current administration. Details are not important.

One thing is for sure, government will feel any recovery slower than the private sector. In some areas of the country where Tax Reform has caught hold like the plague that it is, the recovery will be further stunted by insane limits on government’s ability to charge for the service it provides. It is impossible to actually measure the public’s ability to screw itself when it comes to saving money.

Understand, the public wants service but does not like paying for it. Politicians want to take credit for service to the public and saving money by lowering taxes all in the same breath. Does hypocrisy mean anything to either of them? NO.

What we do know is that, as recovery comes about, governmental management will hold off on admitting things are improving until they can no longer do so. Why? That is simple. They will cry wolf as long as possible to make sure they have reduced wages and benefits to public employees far below reasonable.
It is up to the employee unions to keep management honest.

Keep the pressure on to maintain transparency of budgets and funding sources as well as expenses. Inspect the CAFIR reports carefully and consider getting professional help for the tough stuff. It may be resources well spent when it comes time to renegotiate your contracts.

And Oh yes, Have a nice day?


No comments: