The economic indicators seem to be saying that things are or could be getting better soon, but there are some big qualifiers to that theory. As an amateur economist with some years of academic economics study and many years of suffering at the whims of a wildly fluctuating Florida economy, I can comfortably make this claim: Neither I nor anyone else, with any credible credentials and nothing to gain from predicting further calamity or jubilant economic overheating as before, really have a clue as to where we are going in the short to mid-range term. If we live long enough, things will turn around. All of this nonsense is cyclical, but it could get worse.
That being said, I did some cursory research into real statistical indicators and now proclaim I have a headache from all the conflicting information.
The D’s and President Obama need a swift recovery to keep from suffering a midterm election debacle.
The R’s, Tea Baggers, Beck, O’Reilly and the entire Fox News Network need for the economy to slide further into the crapper or they may have to eat some crow and admit that the world has not been delivered to the Devil in a hand basket by the D’s and Obama. Never mind that the recession predated the current administration. Details are not important.
One thing is for sure, government will feel any recovery slower than the private sector. In some areas of the country where Tax Reform has caught hold like the plague that it is, the recovery will be further stunted by insane limits on government’s ability to charge for the service it provides. It is impossible to actually measure the public’s ability to screw itself when it comes to saving money.
Understand, the public wants service but does not like paying for it. Politicians want to take credit for service to the public and saving money by lowering taxes all in the same breath. Does hypocrisy mean anything to either of them? NO.
What we do know is that, as recovery comes about, governmental management will hold off on admitting things are improving until they can no longer do so. Why? That is simple. They will cry wolf as long as possible to make sure they have reduced wages and benefits to public employees far below reasonable.
It is up to the employee unions to keep management honest.
Keep the pressure on to maintain transparency of budgets and funding sources as well as expenses. Inspect the CAFIR reports carefully and consider getting professional help for the tough stuff. It may be resources well spent when it comes time to renegotiate your contracts.
And Oh yes, Have a nice day?
wjc
Sunday, February 28, 2010
Caveat Lectores on the Devil’s Neck Labor/Management Kumbaya Retreat
This is the year’s first official announcement of the 2010 Devil’s Neck Labor/Management Kumbaya Retreat. Lectores Labor Consulting has been hosting the ever popular retreat at the Devil’s Neck Conference Center on the shores of Lake Tsala Apopka for who knows how long.
This season, we have an unusual program. Normally, we only allow labor advocates and leaders to attend the Devil’s Neck Conference, but this year we are opening the program up to management as well. Call us ambi-educational.
The regular price of $1595 (check or PayPal) for the workshop and materials has not changed since last year because of the economic conditions. However, Lectores Labor Consulting has decided to offer an enhanced version for those who can afford to go first class.
This year, for only $500.00 more, you can get all of the instructional literature along with T-shirt, embossed ball cap and the coveted Lectores Labor Institute Graduate Certification without attending a single workshop. All you have to do is send your tuition ($2095.00 in cash) along with a digital picture of you dressed in a blue open necked shirt. Lectores will Photoshop your image into the group picture and issue your certification, group picture and receipts for all expenses by return mail. What could be a simpler way to move ahead in your business without making any effort?
For you labor leaders who feel the need to actually attend, there will be three days of intense study set in an atmosphere created by the ambiance of the newly renovated 1940’s era Florida Cracker fishing cabin known as the House on Devil’s Neck. It is nestled under the shade of native Bald Cypress and Live Oak trees. Accommodations have been described as “primitive but unrefined.” Tents are optional. The only bed is already reserved. Mosquito repellent is included in the tuition for those who actually attend. More conventional accommodations are available at Gator Bait Lodge, Lake Tsala Apopka, Florida.
Classes begin at 6:00 am and end at noon each day leaving ample time to spend studying for the next day’s lectures or not. In the evenings, we will gather around the stone fire pit to burn trash, join hands and sing the familiar semi religious folk song of murky origins Kumbaya. This wonderful standard campfire song in scouting and the YMCA is part of the title of Devil’s Neck Labor/Management Kumbaya Retreat. Bring your acoustic guitar, mandolin or banjo and play along.
Call Jeff Carnes at 813-240-8165 for reservations or explanation of the true nature of this offer.
And Oh yes, Have a nice Day?
This season, we have an unusual program. Normally, we only allow labor advocates and leaders to attend the Devil’s Neck Conference, but this year we are opening the program up to management as well. Call us ambi-educational.
The regular price of $1595 (check or PayPal) for the workshop and materials has not changed since last year because of the economic conditions. However, Lectores Labor Consulting has decided to offer an enhanced version for those who can afford to go first class.
This year, for only $500.00 more, you can get all of the instructional literature along with T-shirt, embossed ball cap and the coveted Lectores Labor Institute Graduate Certification without attending a single workshop. All you have to do is send your tuition ($2095.00 in cash) along with a digital picture of you dressed in a blue open necked shirt. Lectores will Photoshop your image into the group picture and issue your certification, group picture and receipts for all expenses by return mail. What could be a simpler way to move ahead in your business without making any effort?
For you labor leaders who feel the need to actually attend, there will be three days of intense study set in an atmosphere created by the ambiance of the newly renovated 1940’s era Florida Cracker fishing cabin known as the House on Devil’s Neck. It is nestled under the shade of native Bald Cypress and Live Oak trees. Accommodations have been described as “primitive but unrefined.” Tents are optional. The only bed is already reserved. Mosquito repellent is included in the tuition for those who actually attend. More conventional accommodations are available at Gator Bait Lodge, Lake Tsala Apopka, Florida.
Classes begin at 6:00 am and end at noon each day leaving ample time to spend studying for the next day’s lectures or not. In the evenings, we will gather around the stone fire pit to burn trash, join hands and sing the familiar semi religious folk song of murky origins Kumbaya. This wonderful standard campfire song in scouting and the YMCA is part of the title of Devil’s Neck Labor/Management Kumbaya Retreat. Bring your acoustic guitar, mandolin or banjo and play along.
Call Jeff Carnes at 813-240-8165 for reservations or explanation of the true nature of this offer.
And Oh yes, Have a nice Day?
Monday, February 22, 2010
Caveat Lectores on Pensions for Firefighters and Other Public Employees
JFTDC, the Vigaro hit the Mixmaster (politically correct terminology for shit hit the fan) this week with the submission of the Pew Center report on public sector pensions. The Huffington Post has a good report if anything good can be said of it. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/02/19/state-pensions-plans-face_n_468638.html
As I read portions of the report, my heart sank. Here was a conservative but relatively nonpartisan bunch of researchers who were crying wolf with authority. That alone may spell even more trouble than we can imagine. I immediately sent out the following dispatch to a select group of labor folks hoping to finally get the attention of some who have been living in denial.
“We will have great difficulty attacking the facts. The conclusions are different. The first thing that must be changed is the use of the word "reform." Reform implies something that needs changing because it is bad. Healthcare reform is an example. This subtle nuance is poison to the status quo. To the extent that public employee unions intend to participate in the changes that WILL be made, we need to get involved very quickly. It is too late to get involved early.”
In the hours that followed, we received a fair number of responses and none were rosy. I had an extended conversation on strategy with my good friend and commiserator IAFF 12th DVP Larry Osborne. While we frequently believe that we have the answers to some if not all of the problems of the world, we had to agree that this issue will not go away and will not be solved quickly, easily or cheaply.
While discussing prior efforts to get the members interested in protecting their pensions, we lamented that the IAFF membership demurred from voting to pay for in-depth research and efforts to combat the attacks on pensions. My comment contained an archaic legal concept known as: “What a dumbass fuckupus that was.” (We lawyers know a lot of archaic Latin terms.)
The financial future of all public employees is at risk. Yes, there are problems within the current defined benefit pension system that will have to be addressed for sustainability to occur. Any changes will be financially painful for the employees. If the employees participate, they will still feel violated. If they do not, they will be raped by those who care not for their welfare.
In the weeks and months that follow, Caveat Lectores will provide further comment on how to participate in a process that hopefully will not destroy the future of public employees. For today, I want to identify some of those who are participating in the process. I will avoid devoting bandwidth to family, friends and social issues. All are stakeholders but some will benefit while others will suffer.
The sufferers list first:
1. Current Retirees who look on aghast but painfully unconcerned because they think they are safe. So long as they get their next pension check, they largely say something like, “…sorry about your luck. I am glad I got out when I did.” This is fanciful denial. If government decides to reduce pension and health care benefits, it is difficult but can be accomplished. Get your heads out of your collective asses.
2. Soon-To-Be Retirees who think they can get out before an Apocalyptic Tsunami sweeps the D/B plans out to the sea. (See above) The future pension Apocalypse is now. For those who forgot that Apocalypse is more than a movie about the Viet Nam war, there is the millennial tale of the Battle of Armageddon concerning good (Messiah) and evil (The Beast) eventfully resulting in the end of the world. Guess who will play the part of the Beast. There are people in government who actually believe in the literal version of this and are looking forward to the Rapture. If they are correct, you will not need the money. (If you feel comfortable in this belief, I need money to make up for the pension I gave up when I left the fire service. Just make the check out to Mr. Cash.)
3. Mid Career Employees who should be nearly hysterical and demanding protection from their unions, politicians and employers because they cannot count on being elevated to a level where they can pretend they are safe. ( See above) Anything less than outrage and despair is a symptom of psychotic delusional denial. This is the largest group and will be raped first.
4. Newby Employees who do not recognize the consequences of what is about to happen because they do not believe they will age; therefore, they just watch from the sidelines as they and others get raped out of their futures. Some will even encourage some of the “reforms” because they cannot fathom why they should pay for something for which they do not receive an immediate benefit. I guess they plan on an early death. Wow.
5. Future Employees who have no direct input in the matter and could be the early victims with two tiered retirement systems. They will indirectly support what will eventually make public employment the dumping ground for incompetents who cannot find work elsewhere.
Make no mistake, not everyone will suffer if you lose your pension. There are different levels of beneficiaries who will receive short-term and long-term rewards. These include, but are not limited to, the following:
1. Tax Payers who will receive some minimal gains in the short-term. This may cause long-term problems, but the voting tax payers are not known for long term good judgment. If that were so, we would not be in the financial mess we are today. You will have a very difficult time convincing the average person who sometimes makes less than you do and has no pension that paying taxes so you can have better benefits is a good idea. Remember that one out of eight citizens does not even have a job. It is time to get real.
2. Right Wing Conservatives who want government to cease to exist except to serve their interests. Anything that frees up money to spend on things other than services and social causes is what they crave. “Starve the Beast” is the unspoken motto of the Tea Baggers and the right “Wing Nuts.” If nobody wants to work for government except those who cannot find work elsewhere, it will vindicate their hopes and dreams of a society free of government. My message to any public employee who supports someone who seeks to destroy him is…wake the fuck up dumb ass.
3. The Investment and Financial Businesses who have a lot to gain with the break up of D/B plans. All the money that is now invested and mostly managed properly will become available for consumption by individual brokers and “investment” counselors who derive commissions while they churn your money right out of existence. No, Caveat Lectores does not suggest all in the money and wealth businesses are frauds, cheats and charlatans. However, would we be in the financial mess we find ourselves today but for the banking, mortgage and investment industry that made billions while creating the bubble that burst then expected us to pay?
4. Do Not Forget the Lawyers (like me) who will prosper because of the litigation that comes from all this. The legal system will not stop this debacle unless the bad guys do something illegal. However, that fact alone will not stop people, who were asleep at the wheel, from trying to litigate their way out of doom when they find they ran off the road. We will also get work from drafting the legislation that rapes the employees and from advising on how to redraft the pension contracts. Please cheat me out of that kind of work by doing what it takes to minimize the destruction that is about to occur. I would rather earn less and feel good about helping people instead of holding their hands while they get raped.
Given the opportunity, a lot of people just like me would like to help public employees counteract what could become the downfall of public employment. This is going to take hard work from some thoughtful people using level headed judgment. But first, there must be widespread recognition of the true nature of the problem. Caveat Lectores does not see that quite yet.
And Oh yes, Have a nice day?
wjc
Caveat Lectores by Jeff Carnes
Readers in 35 states and 12 countries
Lectores Labor Consulting 813-240-8165
LectoresIT.com
Caveat Lectores
As I read portions of the report, my heart sank. Here was a conservative but relatively nonpartisan bunch of researchers who were crying wolf with authority. That alone may spell even more trouble than we can imagine. I immediately sent out the following dispatch to a select group of labor folks hoping to finally get the attention of some who have been living in denial.
“We will have great difficulty attacking the facts. The conclusions are different. The first thing that must be changed is the use of the word "reform." Reform implies something that needs changing because it is bad. Healthcare reform is an example. This subtle nuance is poison to the status quo. To the extent that public employee unions intend to participate in the changes that WILL be made, we need to get involved very quickly. It is too late to get involved early.”
In the hours that followed, we received a fair number of responses and none were rosy. I had an extended conversation on strategy with my good friend and commiserator IAFF 12th DVP Larry Osborne. While we frequently believe that we have the answers to some if not all of the problems of the world, we had to agree that this issue will not go away and will not be solved quickly, easily or cheaply.
While discussing prior efforts to get the members interested in protecting their pensions, we lamented that the IAFF membership demurred from voting to pay for in-depth research and efforts to combat the attacks on pensions. My comment contained an archaic legal concept known as: “What a dumbass fuckupus that was.” (We lawyers know a lot of archaic Latin terms.)
The financial future of all public employees is at risk. Yes, there are problems within the current defined benefit pension system that will have to be addressed for sustainability to occur. Any changes will be financially painful for the employees. If the employees participate, they will still feel violated. If they do not, they will be raped by those who care not for their welfare.
In the weeks and months that follow, Caveat Lectores will provide further comment on how to participate in a process that hopefully will not destroy the future of public employees. For today, I want to identify some of those who are participating in the process. I will avoid devoting bandwidth to family, friends and social issues. All are stakeholders but some will benefit while others will suffer.
The sufferers list first:
1. Current Retirees who look on aghast but painfully unconcerned because they think they are safe. So long as they get their next pension check, they largely say something like, “…sorry about your luck. I am glad I got out when I did.” This is fanciful denial. If government decides to reduce pension and health care benefits, it is difficult but can be accomplished. Get your heads out of your collective asses.
2. Soon-To-Be Retirees who think they can get out before an Apocalyptic Tsunami sweeps the D/B plans out to the sea. (See above) The future pension Apocalypse is now. For those who forgot that Apocalypse is more than a movie about the Viet Nam war, there is the millennial tale of the Battle of Armageddon concerning good (Messiah) and evil (The Beast) eventfully resulting in the end of the world. Guess who will play the part of the Beast. There are people in government who actually believe in the literal version of this and are looking forward to the Rapture. If they are correct, you will not need the money. (If you feel comfortable in this belief, I need money to make up for the pension I gave up when I left the fire service. Just make the check out to Mr. Cash.)
3. Mid Career Employees who should be nearly hysterical and demanding protection from their unions, politicians and employers because they cannot count on being elevated to a level where they can pretend they are safe. ( See above) Anything less than outrage and despair is a symptom of psychotic delusional denial. This is the largest group and will be raped first.
4. Newby Employees who do not recognize the consequences of what is about to happen because they do not believe they will age; therefore, they just watch from the sidelines as they and others get raped out of their futures. Some will even encourage some of the “reforms” because they cannot fathom why they should pay for something for which they do not receive an immediate benefit. I guess they plan on an early death. Wow.
5. Future Employees who have no direct input in the matter and could be the early victims with two tiered retirement systems. They will indirectly support what will eventually make public employment the dumping ground for incompetents who cannot find work elsewhere.
Make no mistake, not everyone will suffer if you lose your pension. There are different levels of beneficiaries who will receive short-term and long-term rewards. These include, but are not limited to, the following:
1. Tax Payers who will receive some minimal gains in the short-term. This may cause long-term problems, but the voting tax payers are not known for long term good judgment. If that were so, we would not be in the financial mess we are today. You will have a very difficult time convincing the average person who sometimes makes less than you do and has no pension that paying taxes so you can have better benefits is a good idea. Remember that one out of eight citizens does not even have a job. It is time to get real.
2. Right Wing Conservatives who want government to cease to exist except to serve their interests. Anything that frees up money to spend on things other than services and social causes is what they crave. “Starve the Beast” is the unspoken motto of the Tea Baggers and the right “Wing Nuts.” If nobody wants to work for government except those who cannot find work elsewhere, it will vindicate their hopes and dreams of a society free of government. My message to any public employee who supports someone who seeks to destroy him is…wake the fuck up dumb ass.
3. The Investment and Financial Businesses who have a lot to gain with the break up of D/B plans. All the money that is now invested and mostly managed properly will become available for consumption by individual brokers and “investment” counselors who derive commissions while they churn your money right out of existence. No, Caveat Lectores does not suggest all in the money and wealth businesses are frauds, cheats and charlatans. However, would we be in the financial mess we find ourselves today but for the banking, mortgage and investment industry that made billions while creating the bubble that burst then expected us to pay?
4. Do Not Forget the Lawyers (like me) who will prosper because of the litigation that comes from all this. The legal system will not stop this debacle unless the bad guys do something illegal. However, that fact alone will not stop people, who were asleep at the wheel, from trying to litigate their way out of doom when they find they ran off the road. We will also get work from drafting the legislation that rapes the employees and from advising on how to redraft the pension contracts. Please cheat me out of that kind of work by doing what it takes to minimize the destruction that is about to occur. I would rather earn less and feel good about helping people instead of holding their hands while they get raped.
Given the opportunity, a lot of people just like me would like to help public employees counteract what could become the downfall of public employment. This is going to take hard work from some thoughtful people using level headed judgment. But first, there must be widespread recognition of the true nature of the problem. Caveat Lectores does not see that quite yet.
And Oh yes, Have a nice day?
wjc
Caveat Lectores by Jeff Carnes
Readers in 35 states and 12 countries
Lectores Labor Consulting 813-240-8165
LectoresIT.com
Caveat Lectores
Saturday, February 20, 2010
Caveat Lectores on the $100K Ceiling
Those who have been reading Caveat Lectores for the past eleven months have read my rants about budget cuts and hard times in the public sector. Frankly, I have been warning my clients, friends, labor buddies and others who would listen about the how things would become ugly in public service for over twenty years. My timing was off the mark.
When I left active fire service work in 1990, I could see that we were about to enter some good times. I also knew that things would not remain that way for long, and I suggested to my brothers and sisters that they should not count on prosperity forever.
My prediction that there would be a five to ten year run of good fortune was not correct. An overheated economy that lasted for an incredible amount of time coupled with the afterglow of the 9/11 tragedy kept public safety in the forefront. State and local tax revenues were very healthy, and politicians and municipal managers could not deny it. Even general employees prospered from 9/11 by tagging along but to a lesser degree.
I recall that a wizened fire union leader made the statement that one day soon a firefighter would be making $100k per year and all hell would break loose. He was so right. But we must remember certain facts that are not frequently part of the public media analysis.
• “Firefighter” is a generic term used to refer to nearly every fire/rescue employees from rookie trainee to a fire chief. Along the way are lots of reasons why one firefighter might make more than another. Most have to do with job responsibilities, training and certifications for which firefighters are correctly compensated.
• Overtime has become a big part of the paycheck for firefighters because the basic work week is 56 hours, equating to hourly rates that are lower than the salaries of private sector employees. They are not paid overtime until they work 53 hours instead of 40 like most other employees.
• Firefighters only work overtime because they are directed to do so. It is not a prize in the lottery. Properly staffing of departments will reduce overtime to a minimum but that costs money as well. It is cheaper to pay the overtime then blame it on the employee because he/she made too much money.
• Increased cost of living has inflated the wages of all workers to make it seem like they are making outrageous sums when they have merely been treading water trying to keep from drowning in bad economic times.
I think I recall making about $38 k as a senior fire officer with no overtime when I left active duty in 1990. Since that time, the inflation rate would require me to make about $67 k to have just maintained the same buying power.
So, who belongs to the $100K Club? The majority of high salaries go to top level management - not ordinary working folks like firefighters, police officers, nurses or teachers or other hourly workers who work very hard for their public sector employer.
And oh Yes, Have a nice Day?
wjc
When I left active fire service work in 1990, I could see that we were about to enter some good times. I also knew that things would not remain that way for long, and I suggested to my brothers and sisters that they should not count on prosperity forever.
My prediction that there would be a five to ten year run of good fortune was not correct. An overheated economy that lasted for an incredible amount of time coupled with the afterglow of the 9/11 tragedy kept public safety in the forefront. State and local tax revenues were very healthy, and politicians and municipal managers could not deny it. Even general employees prospered from 9/11 by tagging along but to a lesser degree.
I recall that a wizened fire union leader made the statement that one day soon a firefighter would be making $100k per year and all hell would break loose. He was so right. But we must remember certain facts that are not frequently part of the public media analysis.
• “Firefighter” is a generic term used to refer to nearly every fire/rescue employees from rookie trainee to a fire chief. Along the way are lots of reasons why one firefighter might make more than another. Most have to do with job responsibilities, training and certifications for which firefighters are correctly compensated.
• Overtime has become a big part of the paycheck for firefighters because the basic work week is 56 hours, equating to hourly rates that are lower than the salaries of private sector employees. They are not paid overtime until they work 53 hours instead of 40 like most other employees.
• Firefighters only work overtime because they are directed to do so. It is not a prize in the lottery. Properly staffing of departments will reduce overtime to a minimum but that costs money as well. It is cheaper to pay the overtime then blame it on the employee because he/she made too much money.
• Increased cost of living has inflated the wages of all workers to make it seem like they are making outrageous sums when they have merely been treading water trying to keep from drowning in bad economic times.
I think I recall making about $38 k as a senior fire officer with no overtime when I left active duty in 1990. Since that time, the inflation rate would require me to make about $67 k to have just maintained the same buying power.
So, who belongs to the $100K Club? The majority of high salaries go to top level management - not ordinary working folks like firefighters, police officers, nurses or teachers or other hourly workers who work very hard for their public sector employer.
And oh Yes, Have a nice Day?
wjc
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